Culture Secretary Lucy Frazer

Lucy Frazer has been a member of parliament since 2015

Photo: Department for Culture, Media and Sport via Flickr

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Frazer faces challenge to retain seat

Polling analysis suggests current Culture Secretary, who has been an MP since 2015, may struggle to win parliamentary seat of Ely and East Cambridgeshire.

Patrick Jowett
2 min read

Culture Secretary Lucy Frazer could be set to lose her seat in parliament at next week's general election, according to the latest polling analysis.

During the 2019 general election, Frazer, who has been MP for East Cambridgeshire since 2015, recorded a majority of almost 13,000 over second place Liberal Democrat candidate Pippa Heylings.

In 2024, she will contest a new seat, Ely and East Cambridgeshire, following changes to constituency boundaries. Figures from the Electoral Calculus imply Frazer has a 37% chance of winning the seat. Meanwhile, Liberal Democrat candidate Charlotte Cane has been given a 60% chance of winning.

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Electoral Calculus estimates that Frazer will take 30.9% of the vote, compared with Cane’s 35.6%.

The latest YouGov MRP projection, which polls 40,000 adults across England, Scotland and Wales, also suggests Frazer may lose out. Data from June 11 to June 18 projected 31% of the vote for Cane, compared with 30.2% for Frazer.

YouGov says Frazer’s constituency is among the 30 most marginal across the country. It predicts a further 12 current cabinet ministers are also on course to lose their seat.

Bristol Central latest

Meanwhile, Shadow Culture Secretary Thangam Debbonaire’s chances of remaining an MP appear to be drifting, according to the latest polling analysis.

Earlier this month, Arts Professional reported Debbonaire, who has been an MP since 2015, faced a battle to win the Bristol Central seat against Green Party co-Leader Carla Denyer, with the Labour MP 14 points behind in early polls.

Now, the latest prediction from Electoral Calculus gives Denyer a 19.6 point lead over Debbonaire, at 52.8% of the vote compared with 33.2%. Electoral Calculus translates this into a 90% chance the Green Party will win a seat in Bristol for the first time.

YouGov’s latest projection also forecasts the Greens to win in Bristol Central, currently predicting Denyer to take 50% of the vote compared with Debbonaire’s 37%.